Stock Take: Strongly justified finish

With about a month and a half left until the end of the year, Coolmore America’s justify (Scat Daddy) in a three-way battle with Spendthrift Bolt Doro (Medaglia d’Oro) and Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Good charm (Kirlin) for the new sire’s heroism, which is measured in the offspring’s earnings. Through Monday, Bolt d’Oro narrowly led with $2,122,968 versus $2,065,556 in second place and Judd Magic $1,984,069 in third place. Walking distance to Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Army mule (Friesan Fire) in fourth place with $1,762,485 and Three Chimneys Sharp Azteca (Freud) in fifth place with 1,649,351 dollars.

However, the undefeated Triple Crown winner leads them all with six black-type winners, four at a tiered/set level. There are no more than four Black Class winners and three tiered or group winners to date, and Justify’s numbers in these categories equal the annual totals for the Three Chimneys sensation gun runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), who finished 2021 with six black-type winners—tied with Coolmore America’s practical joke (Into Mischief) – and four graded or collective winners. Of course, Gun Runner also had two Grade 1 winners, and finished the year as the leading sire in the first crop with a surreal total of $4,315,980 in offspring earnings. That’s why Gun Runner will stand in the realm of three times Justify’s 2023 fee of $100,000, based in part on some privately traded shares in Candy Ride’s $2.5 million son.

Of the current debutants, Good Magic is only represented by a class 1 winner – Blazing Sevens, winner of the GI Champagne S. With Starlet at Los Angeles the last North American juvenile class race on the calendar, only Good Magic will have a chance To equal Gun Runner’s Grade l total from last year unless the two remaining Grade l races in Japan change that dynamic for another North American-based sire. But Justify has a realistic chance of surpassing Gun Runner’s dark skins for 2021.

Frances J. Caron, my colleague at Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, first hinted at this possibility in two terse tweets shortly after Justify’s late daughter, Justic, won the Desi Arnaz S. Award at Del Mar Sunday. In one tweet, she said: “Justik, one half of fellow Justify list Mo Town (bred either alone or in partnership by John D. New SW cuts tie with Havana Gray (standing for UK), puts Justify at the top of the list… Newborns by SWs.” She also tweeted: “Last year’s freshmen who took part in a number of SWs were Gun Runner and Practical Joke, with six each, so with six weeks until the end of the year, Justify has a chance to overtake them. ”

In exchange for Gun Runner, that would be an accomplishment, especially for a horse who’s never raced and characters like Gun Runner to have his best success with his 3-year-olds. It also makes Justify’s stud fee something of a bargain at the price, if that can be said for a six-figure fee, since there’s so much demand for the nominations. For example, one prominent breeder recently signed contracts for six mares at the advertised price – there are no group discounts on this horse – and has no qualms about paying them $600,000 if each of his mares gives birth to a live foal. “It really does the job,” he said, “and they should be better next year.”

Over the summer, I wrote an article here on July 19 titled “The Justification for Moving Early.” At the time, the Big Chestnut was represented by a Group II winner in Europe and a Group III winner in North America. He exploded onto the scene much faster than would have been expected for horses of his size and race record, and has continued to progress, regularly producing two winners (he has 23 now) and other stakes winners, but now appears to be finishing the season stronger with two new stakes winners in the fortnight the last two and the possibility of achieving more. Until recently, the only asterisk on his resume was the colt’s apparent bias—the first of four type winners he was Black Fillies—but in early November, two weeks before Desi Arnaz’s result for Justique, the colt Champions Dream won the Glll Nashua S. at Canal Aqueduct to break the male sinead.

Champions Dream was $25,000 Keeneland in September of the year snatched up for $425,000 in OBS March. He first won a first private at Saratoga and then finished fifth in Champagne behind Blazing Sevens before Nashua was counted out. He is a legitimate colt at the Triple Crown course.

Prove Right, another Justify colt, finished third at Nashua, and he too was cheap Keeneland in September last year, earning just $15,000. He had won his first private at Churchill in late June.

On the other hand, Justique sold for $725,000 in the same Keeneland auction. She won her first Del Mar Grand Prix on her first start, finished third at Gll Chandelier S. at Santa Anita next, and is now a new stakes winner.

Other expensive winners for Justify include several lightly raced sprinters who plan to improve next year, including the promising, $600,000-year-old Arabian Lion from OBS in April who won a special debut at Santa Anita and was the last of which finished second to the Breeders’ Talented Speaking Horse Weekend Cup Giant Mischief (Into Mischief) at Keeneland in an allowance race on his second start; the European-based Bertinelli, $750,000 Keeneland September deal who won the first race at Dundalk on his second start in early November; Verification, $775,000 Keeneland September and Saratoga first-time Special winner who then finished second in Champagne and then changed places in the Gl Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; Rarify, the $750,000-old Keeneland September who won her first Keeneland Special Championship at the end of October on her third start after two second-place finishes in similar races at Saratoga. and Tres Soles, the $400,000-year-old Keeneland September who won his first Churchill Downs Special Weight and was sixth on his next start behind Giant Mischief and Arabian Lion in the aforementioned race at Keeneland.

Aside from Justique and Champions Dream, Justify’s other back-type winners are the European Group 2 Statuette winners, a domestic dynasty who are undefeated in two matches; Aspen Grove (Ire), EC group 3 winner from four matches; Just Cindy, winner of two of four starts, including Glll Schuylerville at Saratoga; and Justa Warrior, also a winner of two of his four starts, including Ellis Park Debutante S.

A growing cross

Caron, in a separate tweet, pointed out the evolving pattern of some Justify black type winners, namely that the stallion crosses well with the AP Indy line. She wrote: “I should also note that Justify has two SWs (plus one spw) from seven Bernardini daughter foals, plus a G3SW from a mare from Tapit, another sire from the AP Indy line.”

The two stakes winners from Bernardini’s mares are Justa Warrior and Justique, while the stakes winner is Rosie’s Alibi, who was third to Tempted S. at Aqueduct earlier this month. Champions Dream is one of the tabby mare, as is the aforementioned Colt Tres Souls.

As Justify’s second dam, Magical Illusion, is by Pulpit, there is inbreeding either to A.P. Indy himself or to Pulpit, a native of Tapit, in this lineage. Dream Champions and Tres Soles are Tapit mares and have a 4×3 Pulpit; And the aforementioned three Bernardini mares have an AP Indy 5×3.

Scat Daddy himself had three black-bred winners from Tapit’s mares, including the Group Three winner Sergey Prokofiev, and had the Grade 1 Harmonize mare by Sky Mesa, Pulpit’s son as Tapit.

With the Bernardini and Tabet mares readily available in broodmare groups in Kentucky, Justify is bound to see more of them in the future, which isn’t a bad thing, given the early returns.

Sid Fernando is President and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc. , and rating creator Werk Nick and eNicks.

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